November 09, 2003

Life in 2023 with a 1928 Airport

Union-Tribune Op-Ed by ASAP21 on 11-9-2003

Read the Op-Ed piece by John Chalker

ASAP 21 Op-Ed
November 9, 2003
The San Diego Union-Tribune

Life in 2023 with a 1928 Airport
By John Chalker
How will San Diego County meet our air transport needs in the 21st century? Perhaps I can best answer that question by posing another. Will ignoring that question better serve our quality of life?
I think the true answer to both questions lies in a look into the future, because the discussion is not about serving today?s demands, but about meeting the air transportation demands of our region in 20, 30 and 50 years in the future. It?s about planning for that demand, a process that typically takes about 13 years for a new airport: ten years to site, plan and complete the federal and local permitting process, and then another three years to build it ? assuming there are no complications.
Twenty years from now, the region?s air transportation needs will be different. With no planning and no adjustments made for these changes, our future quality of life will be affected. But how?
The date is 2023, and San Diego County is home to more than 3.5 million residents, 700,000 more people than in 2003. Affordable housing is still a problem, and traffic congestion, despite an extension of the half cent sales tax for TransNet projects, is as bad as ever. We didn?t build a high-speed rail service to Los Angeles because of localized opposition and budget problems. The airport hasn?t moved ? still a one-runway marvel, but now including a third terminal building on Harbor Drive. Now, unfortunately, an everyday trip to the airport in 2023 is like a visit during a pre-Sept. 11 Thanksgiving rush ? only worse.
There is no direct rail connection and traffic is backed up from the terminals all the way to the I-5 offramps. Automobiles creep along, pumping exhaust into the air while their occupants worry about catching a flight or meeting a business associate. Terminal facilities built to accommodate 25 million passengers a year must now handle the demand of more than 30 million passengers. Although the new terminal addition offers some relief from crowds jammed shoulder-to-shoulder in Terminals One and Two, the wait for security clearance is frustratingly long.
Of course, this assumes you could purchase a ticket for your flight and destination, given the limited number of flights. The single runway, which was the busiest single-runway operation in the United States in 2000 with more than 220,000 takeoffs and landings, reached capacity in 2015 with 280,000 operations. With no room for a second runway, airlines attempted to meet the demand by buying larger aircraft. Unfortunately, the airport cannot accommodate enough of the new 550-passenger Airbus A380 double deck aircraft, or the new Boeing 7E7 Dreamliner, both of which started flying in 2008. The limited space at the crowded terminal facilities keeps the airport from being able to take full advantage of the larger aircraft.
The terminals are so close to the runway that there is no room for expansion, no way for technology to come to the rescue of an airfield stretched beyond capacity.
The result is a traffic jam of cars, shuttle buses and vacation and business travelers waiting hours just to board their flight ? often spending more time in the terminal and Harbor Drive than in flight.
The air cargo area where so much of our region?s high technology products are shipped to time-sensitive customers in Europe, Asia, Latin America and the East Coast doesn?t fare much better than the passenger facilities in 2023. Despite construction of a large but temporary air cargo facility, a large amount of truck traffic bypasses the airport on I-5 as it rolls north to LAX or the March Cargo Port. Literally thousands of trucks head north every day, returning with imports from Asia that arrived at LAX. Naturally, the diesel exhaust and added congestion on I-5 and I-15 are tremendous.
In 2000, approximately 10,000 trucks passed through the San Onofre truck checkpoints each day, carrying goods back and forth from Los Angeles, and many of them connected to the air cargo center at LAX. The demand in 2023 is estimated to be five times as great as 2000; and that means more noise, traffic congestion and air pollution.
In 2023, business suffers because of San Diego?s lack of air transport capacity. Despite widespread teleconferencing, sales are still completed in face-to-face meetings. And once the sale is made, companies face the difficult task of shipping products, hosting conferences and staging conventions without adequate air service. In the end, some of San Diego County?s flagship high technology and biotech companies depart the area, leaving only the highly paid executive staffs.
Cities competing with San Diego did not follow our example.
Phoenix and Las Vegas continued their airport expansions, and in 2023 flights connecting them to Europe and Asia are plentiful. Asia, with a regional economy that has begun to rival the United States in 2023, has become the most important business destination in the world. Unfortunately, San Diego?s connection to Asia has not grown commensurately.
By 2023, San Diego has lost many opportunities to attract companies with high-paying jobs. The convention and visitor industry has grown to become the second-largest contributor to the economy after light manufacturing, but the average income for these jobs is not as attractive. Slowly, our standard of living began to drop as the cost of importing our water, gasoline, raw materials and products began to eat away at the bottom line. As companies left the area, San Diego County?s per capita income did not keep pace with the national average. Of course, local governments feel the pinch too. With so much money and so many jobs leaving, budget crises have become standard, with fewer resources available to maintain our quality of life.
Planning for 2023 is critical for San Diego. It?s about the future of our region, the vision of a quality of life unrivaled. But with airport construction taking at least 13 years, the future is fast becoming the present.
In order to move forward, we must all recognize at least one truth: a single runway, already operating at 80 percent capacity, cannot support the region?s needs 20 years in the future. This runway may not support the region?s needs in 10 years. Therefore, we must plan today for our future generations; we must overcome the obstacles, mitigate the problems and support the San Diego County Regional Airport Authority site selection process to identify the best solution for meeting the region?s future air transportation needs. A spirited public debate on that recommendation awaits the region in 2006. Then, I hope that we?ll recognize that a new airport will better serve our quality of life.

John Chalker is a founding member and currently serves on the board of the Alliance in Support of Airport Progress in the 21st Century (ASAP21). He also the managing director and portfolio manager for San Diego based LM Capital Group, LLC.

Last Updated: April 12, 2005

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